Service Plays Sunday 11/22/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[KINGOFNEWYORK]

vegas-runner | NFL Total Sun, 11/22/09 - 1:00 PM ¶ƒ
triple-dime bet 419 SEA / 420 MIN Under 46.5 bodog
Analysis:

*** NFL "TRUE STEAM" 3* GAME OF THE WEEK *** ("11-3" the L3 Weeks..."69% ATS" Overall)



This is a classic example of the Outfits seeing so much Value in a Bet, that they didn't even see the need to allow the "Betting Public" to force the Bookmakers, to adjust the line...and ultimately get an even better Total to go Under, than what they bet it at...

Bottom Line, there is no doubt in any Bookmakers mind...of what side the Betting Public will be on...for the Total of this Match-Up...And if they are 100% sure that they will receive a lot of action on the Over as we approach, and on game-day...you can rest assured that the Wiseguys were aware of this as well...But yet they still went ahead and took this position, which guarantees us that it's a "TRUE STEAM" Bet...

More importantly, after speaking to some of those "runners" who actually move "Steam"...They all agreed that fortunately, the books receive so much more Public Money, than they do Wiseguy Money, on the NFL...that their respective Outfits were able to take a significant position on this wager...

This Total Opened at "47"...which is actually one of a handful of "Key Totals", due to the fact that there are plenty of combinations of Final Scores, that equal 47...And the books do not like coming off these Key Totals, anymore than they do the "Key Spreads"...So you can be sure that when they do, there is plenty of "Steam" behind it...

And that is the case for this game...Where the books went ahead and opened it up at 47, and were immediately forced to adjust down to 46...

Fortunately for us, the "TRUE STEAM" Bet that I believe offers up the most betting Value, based on my own Ratings/Lines...is in the NFL...Because as I stated above, the public money far outweighs the Wiseguy money...and therefore, as the public begins unloading on the Over...we will still have no problem finding a great line...

Let's go ahead and bet the UNDER 46.5 in this Match-Up...as our very 1st NFL "TRUE STEAM" BET OF THE WEEK...VR

 

[EagleFan]

Wunderdog

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 490.5pt; BACKGROUND: white; mso-cellspacing: 2.2pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; mso-padding-alt: 3.75pt 3.75pt 3.75pt 3.75pt" class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width=654><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 0.75in; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-BOTTOM: 3.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; PADDING-LEFT: 3.75pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 3.75pt; HEIGHT: 0.75in; BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; PADDING-TOP: 3.75pt" vAlign=top>I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 5% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>


Game: Cleveland at Detroit (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 38 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)

<!--p--><o></o></P>This one may be the ugliest game of the year and described by some as the Losers Bowl. Yes, I'm aware that the Browns offense has five TDs in their last 15 games, so let's get that out of the way first. It is hard to defend against that, but when you look at the roster of opponents in those 15 games, you can make a case that their offense isn't as horrible as it first appears. The Browns have faced Cincinnati three times, the Steelers twice, Baltimore twice, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Denver, Minnesota, Tennessee (last year's version at 13-3), and Philadelphia. That means in 13 of their 15 games, they were playing some of the top defenses in the league. The Browns' one win came in one of the two games they weren't playing over their head. They certainly won't be playing over their head in this one vs. a Lions’ team that has one win in their last 25 games. So as bad as Cleveland looks, they are likely not the worst team on the field today. The Browns played just four teams all of last year with a record of under .500 and in those games averaged 18 ppg. That is a far cry from the five total TDs in their last 15 (vs. 13 teams with winning records). This year through nine games, the Browns have faced just two opponents with a losing record and they are 1-1. That equals Detroit's win count in their last 25 games. The Lions have to be playing a bad team to be favored, and during this stretch of one win in 25 games, they have been favored three times and are 0-3 ATS. The Browns may be bad, but at least they have been bad against a lot of very good teams. The Lions have just been bad period and should not be favored. I like the Browns plus the 3.5. I also like the UNDER in this one. The Browns’ last 15 games have seen an average of just under 31 points per game scored, and neither of these teams have enough offense to take advantage of the others deficiencies on defense. After a big defensive effort where they allowed less than 150 passing yards, the Browns are 26-8 to the UNDER and the Lions have played five of their last six at home UNDER. Cleveland is 4-1 UNDER on thee road this season while Detroit is 3-1 UNDER at home. In games played in a dome, the Lions are 17-4 UNDER in their last 21. They are also 10-2 UNDER since last season after a double-digit loss. I like the Brownies in an ugly low-scoring game here.<o></o>
<!--p-->Game: Seattle at Minnesota (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +11 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

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If there was ever a spot on the Vikings’ schedule to take a breather, this would be it. They are coming off of two division games, and have another one waiting in the wings next week. The Vikings are at 8-1 and have all but clinched the NFC North. The Seahawks, at 3-6 certainly aren't going to get their attention to "bring it" so to speak, this week. Seattle is 0-4 on the road and have not come within 11 points of anyone, so why would they come within 11 of one of the best two teams in the NFC? Because this is the NFL and this is where the money lies. For starters, 8-1 teams as a home double-digit favorite cover just 33% of the time, and have lost 33% of the time straight up! The Seahawks lost two games without Matt Hasselback at QB, so they aren't as crummy as the record looks. Hasselbeck is back in prime form having passed for over 300 yards in each of his last two games. The Seahawks have shown some guts as they have come back in their next game after allowing 30+ points to go 4-0 ATS. The Vikings simply are not a top-notch big chalk team. The last 13 times they have been favored by 10.5 or more, they are a woeful 1-11-1 ATS. They really have been a poor home team against the number as well. This year they are 4-0 straight-up at home but just 1-3 ATS. Going back to last season, they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games! Minnesota is getting a lot of love right now based on their record and coming off a game in which they won by 17 points, allowing just 10 to the Lions. But, under Brad Childress, the Vikings are just 3-12 ATS after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points. I like the Seahawks to hang closer than this line.<o></o>
<!--p-->Game: Indianapolis at Baltimore (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Indianapolis -1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

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The Colts appear to be a team of destiny this year. They haven't lost a game in over a year (18 games) and turned a sure loss into a win last week in New England. Peyton Manning is having one of his best years ever and that is saying a lot. Winning has been ingrained here and this team expects and wants to win every single one. That mindset is paying dividends. Manning leads the league in completion percent (70%), passing yards (2872) and touchdowns (20). He has a 104.2 passer rating (third best in the league). He's only been sacked eight times on the entire season - less than once per game. Baltimore's defense has looked good the last three games, but that includes games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Denver. Cleveland can't score, Kyle Orton has really struggled of late, and Cincinnati is winning on defense, not offense. Against good offenses and quarterbacks, Baltimore has been lit up this season. They gave up 26 points to Phillip Rivers, 27 to Tom Brady, and 33 to Brett Favre. Baltimore's defense is still thought of by many to be dominant but they really are not. I expect Manning to find success. Joe Flacco has proven himself a very good quarterback and the Ravens have given him a much larger share of the load. But, Indy is 9-2 straight-up the past three seasons vs. QBs that complete 64%+ of their passes. The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games and they have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the Ravens. Even when the Raven's defense was one of the best in the NFL, Manning and the Colts averaged 26 ppg in those contests. Now with Baltimore's defense having slipped, and Indy playing better than anyone, why not expect another Colts win here? Baltimore is 2-7 straight-up the past three seasons vs. teams at .750 or better and they have lost 33 of their last 49 games vs. teams that allow 17 or fewere points per game. Finally, Indy is 10-1 straight-up since last season after an ATS loss. I like the Colts here.<o></o>
<!--p-->Game: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 51 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

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It has become a given that the New Orleans Saints games are going to be played against heavily "taxed" totals on the plus side, and no surprise here to see this one pushing over 50. There is an elongated history in the NFL that points to bias regarding high totals in a certain range, and this one is within that threshold. The bias points to totals that are set too high, because the public loves offensive teams and OVERs, and that certainly fits the bill here. Last week New Orleans played to the OVER (thanks to a special teams touchdown). Tampa Bay's anemic offense has caught some fire under Josh Freeman. But the scores are a bit misleading. The reality is 417 yards in two games with two INTs, doesn't show that to be the difference.. So the two games fresh in the minds of the public offset the seven games of averaging 13+ a game? The stats don't say it. The Bucs offense is averaging 276.3 yards per game, and with Freeman at QB in the last two, they have scored 61 points. But the yards average is just about the same at 290.5 (14 yards per game better). Hardly anything that says the Tampa Bay offense is rolling! The Bucs have played eight of their last eleven against a winning team to the UNDER. New Orleans is just 50% over/under this season in division games (which tend to be tighter, harder fought battles). I like this one to go UNDER.<o></o>
<!--p-->Game: Buffalo at Jacksonville (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +9 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)

<!--p--><o></o>
The Buffalo Bills are looking for a change. They fired coach Dick Juaron and elevated Ryan Fitzpatrick to the starter at QB. The Bills will likely be going to the run a lot in this game as Jacksonville ranks just No. 22 against the run and Fred Jackson has had a premier year. If the Bills can get the running game going and shorten the game, nine points will be hard for Jacksonville to overcome as they are likely to employ the same strategy against the Bills who have also had trouble stopping the run. The Bills secondary has made a lot of big plays this season, so the vulnerability here is against the run. This line is predicated on what happened last week. The Bills were torched by a Titans team that is getting its act together after a horrendous start, and the Jags have won two straight. The reality remains that the Jags are a team barely over .500 that has a sub-.500 ATS mark and an 8-17 ATS record dating back to last season. Over that span they are 1-10 ATS as a favorite! So, 9 points here is too much. To put it in perspective, the league’s worst team, the St. Louis Rams, came in here as a 9.5 point underdog and here we have the Bills at +9. The oddsmakers are saying the Bills and Rams are on equal footing? It also should be noted it took the Jags OT to get past the Rams and their two-game winning streak is comprised of wins by 3 points at home against the 2-7 Chiefs, and 2 points vs. the 4-5 Jets. That means that the Jags’ last three wins have come by a total of 8 points against teams with a combined record of 7-20! Hardly a team deserving of such a lofty pointspread. The Bills have covered six of their last eight on the road, while the Jags have struggled to a 2-10 ATS mark in their last 12 at home. Too many points here, I'll go with the Bills.<o></o>
<!--p-->Game: Atlanta at New York Giants (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +7 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

<!--p--><o></o>
This game has become a pivotal one in the NFC as both of these teams sit at 5-4. The fact that the wildcard race sees four teams in the NFC at 5-4, the winner takes a leg up here while the loser could be in big trouble. The Giants opened the season with five straight wins, but have suddenly dropped four in a row. They own four of their five wins vs. teams that have a combined record of 8-28, so the jury is still out on just how good this team really is. The proof may be in the fact that this Giants team has allowed just 40 points in four games vs. losing teams (10 points per game), but they have been torched for 32.8 ppg in their five games against winning teams. New York's running game has not been as lethal this season, as in seasons' past. They are still gaining a respectable 4.37 yards per carry, but that pales in contrast to the potent land attack they had a year ago when they produced over five yards a pop. That has put QB Eli Manning in more situations of third and long. It has also shown itself in the interception department as Eli threw just 10 picks all last year and this year he has thrown eight already. The Giants No. 1 defensive ranking in yards allowed is misleading as they rank just No. 21 in the league in points allowed - worse than Atlanta. The Falcons have played their best after a straight-up loss where they are now 10-1 ATS, and I would expect their "A" game here which they have brought every time after a loss. This has been a road-dominated series over the years with the road team collecting the cash in the last seven, and that includes Atlanta getting the money in the last four played in New York. My computer matchup for this game has Atlanta keeping this one close. I agree that they will keep it close, and may even win.<o></o>
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[pizza]

LANG on PHILLY DAILY NEWS LIVE

COLTS P
VIKINGS -11
49ers +7

EAGLES -3 (2 for the $)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dover picks

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nfl

arizona -7 4 units
atl +7 2 units
gb -6 1 unit
det -3 1 unit


ari/stl under 47 1 unit
no/tb over 50 1 unit
pitt/kc under 41 1 unit

 

[Sirduke]

Sirduke Sports

<TABLE border=1 cellSpacing=0 bgColor=#ffffff><CAPTION>Sirduke Sports</CAPTION><THEAD><TR><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Date</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Kick Off</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Club Rating</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Rotation</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Selection</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Rating</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>11/22/2009</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>1:00:00 PM</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Members</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>413</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Indianapolis Colts-1</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>7*</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>11/22/2009</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>4:05:00 PM</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Members</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>426</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>St Louis Rams+9</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>7*</TD></TR></TBODY><TFOOT></TFOOT></TABLE>
Currently ranked # 23 in the NFL by The Sports Monitor in OKC. Winner Thursday night on Miami Dolphins.

 

[newty81]

<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="v2table-cell01-td">1:00p
Matt Fargo
PICK:<!-- jbjbjb -->Jacksonville Jaguars: -8.5 () / 4 units<!-- jbjbjb -->
**4** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **68% RUN** The deadline was approaching for my weekly suicide pool pick on Tuesday as I was torn between a few teams. Then news broke early afternoon that the Bills had just fired head coach Dick Jauron and that made my decision pretty straight-forward. If you are a general manager or owner and are going to fire your coach, do it Sunday after the game and don’t wait two days into the week to do it. Buffalo was absolutely annihilated in the fourth quarter last week in Tennessee and that certainly finalized the coaching decision as Jauron lost control of that sideline. Now the Bills need to prepare for another road game on a very short week of planning and this just isn’t going to happen. A coaching change mid-season tells us one main thing and that is that the team has called it quits. In other sports, we can sometimes use the coaching change as motivation but not here as there are too few played in a season and too few games remaining. If Buffalo was facing a team that was in a similar position of fighting for a draft pick, this pick would probably not transpire. However, Jacksonville has gotten itself right back into the playoff race. Once left for dead after a 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Seattle, the Jaguars have won three of their last four games and even though the results were close, by a combined eight points, they outgained the opposition in all of those games which make the wins actually more substantial because other variables came into play. Jacksonville is now 5-4 on the season and just a game out of the Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Jaguars are tied with other teams so they will need help but they need to take care of business and they know this. The remaining schedule is very tough with the exception of a couple of games so they cannot falter here. Buffalo has been outgained on the ground in seven straight games no thanks to a rushing defense that is ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 173 ypg and 5.1 ypc. The Bills are the only team in football giving up over half of a first down per carry on the ground. Can Jacksonville exploit this Buffalo rushing defense? I’d say so as Maurice Jones-Drew is fifth in the NFL with 860 yards and he has had 123 or more rushing yards in three of his last four games. On the other side Ryan Fitzpatrick got the call at quarterback over Trent Edwards but that isn’t going to do much for the offense. The Bills will no doubt try and pound the ball and while the Jaguars have allowed a good amount of yards on the ground, they are allowing just 4.3 ypc.The passing defense has been the liability but Buffalo cannot exploit it with the league’s 29th ranked offense. The rushing edge for Jacksonville also puts it into a great angle. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 150 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +13.5 ppg. This is not a must win for the Jaguars but it is as close to it as possible as a loss would be detrimental. Even with the recent personnel changes for the Bills, this line has not done a whole lot. 4* Jacksonville Jaguars
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="v2table-cell02-td"> 1:00p
Matt Fargo
PICK:<!-- jbjbjb -->New York Giants: -6.5 () / 4 units<!-- jbjbjb -->
The Giants are coming off the bye week and hopefully they found some answers as to what has been going on the over the last four games. After starting the season 5-0, New York was thumped by the Saints and it has not been the same team since then. Normally this is sign to stay away by some but I think this is the best time to play on teams like this as we get a lot of additional value that we otherwise would not receive has they been playing like they should be playing. Despite the four straight losses, the Giants have outgained two of those opponents and those happened to be the two games played at home against the Cardinals and Chargers. Arizona played a good game and deserved the win but the Chargers had no business winning their game prior to New York’s bye week. All told, the Giants week off could not have come at a better time. Atlanta continues to struggle on the road. The Falcons are 1-4 away from home this season and they have lost the first three in this stretch of four road games in five weeks. Some of the losses have been close but this team is still young and is having trouble away from the dome. Of the nine games played this season, Atlanta has had only one really good game and that was at San Francisco but that was an aberration. The Falcons have been outgained in five of the other eight games and in the other three games where they won the yardage differential, those totals were by 22, 5 and 20 yards. As you can tell, it has been not even close to dominant. Part of the problem was last year’s savior quarterback Matt Ryan. He is playing decent but his passer rating is only 78.8 on the season as he has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes and tossed 12 interceptions. That is one more interception thrown than all of last season and now he will not have main running back Michael Turner to help out. Despite the recent struggles, the Giants are still ranked first in the NFL in total defense. They have been average at getting to the quarterback and Atlanta has done a great job in protecting Ryan and it is imperative for New York to get pressure to help out the secondary. Giants defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan probably will utilize lots of man and zone blitz schemes from all areas of the field to keep Ryan out of his comfort zone. On the other side, the Falcons defense is struggling as it is 24th in the NFL in total defense and they have been particularly weak against the run, allowing 130.3 ypg which is 25th in the league. The Giants running game is ranked seventh in the NFL so they will be able to take advantage and get the offense going once again as it has struggled to put up points the last three games. The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yppl under head coach Tom Coughlin so playing a bad defense can be exploited. Also they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a game where they outrushed the opponent by 75 or more yards. This should be the perfect spot for the Giants to back to its winning ways. 4* New York Giants
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="v2table-cell01-td"> 4:15p
Matt Fargo
PICK:<!-- jbjbjb -->Oakland Raiders: +9.0 () / 4 units<!-- jbjbjb -->
Now that JaMarcus Russell has been benched, it is an opportunity once again to take the Raiders. I took them in a similar spot with Russell at quarterback so I will definitely be taking them again in a similar situation without him in the lineup. Oakland dropped another game last week against Kansas City that it could have won. The Raiders have lost two straight games by eight points or fewer ever since getting pounded by the Jets so they have been competitive and have not mailed it in for the year. Oakland has covered four of its nine games this season including two of five at home and those two came against the two best teams on the schedule that came to visit in Philadelphia and San Diego. It is pretty clear that Oakland plays up or down to the competition. The Bengals are coming off a monster win in Pittsburgh, sweeping the Steelers in the process, and coming closer to grabbing the AFC North title. The win was actually the second big one in a row as they defeated Baltimore at home prior to that and Cincinnati is now 5-0 in the division with a change to finish a perfect 6-0 as it faces Cleveland at home next week. That makes a trip to the west coast the last thing on their minds as the division record is the first tiebreaking factor used and a 6-0 record obviously cannot be beat. When I bet against the Eagles out in Oakland a month ago, a lot of the situations were similar as we had an east coast team going west in a game it wanted nothing to do with. After Cleveland, the Bengals host Detroit so from a confidence perspective, the Bengals are thinking 3-0 in the next three games without blinking an eye. One major factor is hurting the Bengals and that is Cedric Benson will not be in uniform this week due to a strained hip. He will be replaced by the newly signed Larry Johnson whose best years have come and gone. Benson is sixth in the NFL in rushing so his absence is huge especially going up against an Oakland defense that has been killed by the run. This would have been a big edge but not anymore and it may be up to Carson Palmer to win it and he has been having trouble as the passing offense is ranked only 19th in the NFL and he is averaging only 6.9 ypa which is 16th. Oakland has been decent against the pass and it has been really good in three of the last four games. The offenses faced have been average but the Bengals have scored 18 or fewer points in five of their nine games. On the other side, Oakland will pound it and try to establish some sort of a running game to keep Cincinnati off the field on offense. Those two recent Cincinnati wins puts Oakland into a great situation. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive wins as an underdog and that have a winning record on the season. This situation is 46-20 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1983. The logic is simple in that underdogs winning two straight games are in store for a letdown and that is what we have here. Cincinnati is the talk of the NFL right now and this is the perfect time to sell high. The Raiders keep another one within reach. 4* Oakland Raiders
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="v2table-cell02-td"> 4:15p
Matt Fargo
PICK:<!-- jbjbjb -->New England Patriots: -10.5 () / 5 units<!-- jbjbjb -->
I’ve been reading numerous articles pertaining to the Bill Belichick call against the Colts where he decided to go for it on fourth down instead of punting it. I for one thought it was a smart call and a good call as he was trying to win the game right there and then with his offense that had not been stopped all night. There are debates all over the joint and there are opinions that the defense was called out by Belichick saying that he had no choice because he had no trust in his defense and that this call could be a season ending one. Both of those answers are wrong and if anything, this is going to make this team even better. Had the Patriots won that game, this game would be a lot tougher call but coming off a loss, I will take my chances with the Patriots at home. Even bettering those chances is the fact that it is a revenge spot against a hated rival who is completely unraveling. The Jets took out New England in Week Two as they did not allow a touchdown in that game. After that came a win against Tennessee but it has been all downhill since as New York has lost five of its last six games. Four of those came by five points or fewer so it can be argued that the Jets record could be a lot better and I will not disagree with that. However, when these losses pile up, it makes it tougher to recover from and this is the last place that the Jets want to go right now to try and turn their season around. This is the first road test since October 12th when they traveled to Miami as since then there have been three home games, a bye and a trip to lowly Oakland. Watching networks like ESPN really solidifies the fact that people are more concerned about controversy than about reality. This Belichick decision has been the top story since it happened and quite honest, it is already getting old. The big storyline surrounding it is how it will affect the Patriots going forward and if there is one team in the NFL that can rebound and actually improve from it, it’s the Patriots. I certainly expect that here and with the division lead now just two games over Miami, New England knows it cannot slip up especially with a game at New Orleans on deck. The Patriots are 5-0 at home and with four of the final six games being on the road, a slip up here could be devastating. The Patriots are 4-1 this season against teams ranked outside the top ten and that one loss happened to come against the Jets. This game has been circled since that September 20th loss and not only because of the loss itself but because of what was said. The first time around for these two divisional rivals, the Jets relentlessly pressured Tom Brady and came out with the win. You can be sure that this game plan will not change, but the Patriots should be better equipped to handle the overload blitz and give to Brady enough protection to pick apart the Jets’ secondary. We have to remember that the first meeting was only the second game back for Brady after missing all of last season with a knee injury. It is safe to say he is now fully back as his passer rating of 100.6 is fifth in the NFL and four of his last six games have seen a passer rating of 100 or higher after not putting up an average rating of 79.3 through his first three games. His 53.1 rating against the Jets was easily the worst of the season and he no doubt knows it and he wants redemption probably more than anyone. The Patriots have a pretty bad recent record as double-digit favorites however they are 1-1 ATS this season with the lone loss coming by a half-point. Most of those losses came in late 2007 when New England was hit with some huge overinflated lines during its undefeated regular season. It closed 1-8 ATS that season. Coming off a loss, there are not many people I’d rather be behind than Belichick or Brady as the Patriots are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. 5* New England Patriots
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="v2table-cell01-td"> 8:20p
Matt Fargo
PICK:<!-- jbjbjb -->Philadelphia Eagles: -3.0 () / 4 units<!-- jbjbjb -->
**4** NFL PRIMETIME ON NBC ***13-6 RUN*** The Eagles were a big disappointment last week in San Diego. After losing at home to Dallas and heading out west to avoid a similar outcome like the Raiders game, Philadelphia struggled when it mattered the most and dropped its second straight game. It was fortunate that the red hot Cowboys lost in Green Bay last week so it remains a game out of first place in the NFC East. The rest of the schedule is difficult so there is no spot for anymore letdowns and that definitely includes this week. Being favored on the road may not seem like the right line at first glace but the Eagles have been favored in three of their four road games, going 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming in Oakland. Philadelphia has outgained six of nine opponents and it has not been outgained by more than 61 yards in those three games so the problem is not overall but when the team gets inside the redzone and that is explained further down. The Bears had every chance to win last Thursday night against the 49ers but the offense stalled once again and they managed a mere six points. It was the fifth time they have scored 17 or fewer points on the season and they now have to square off against a peeved off defense that allowed 31 points last week, the second most given up this season. Chicago’s last three wins have come against the Browns, Lions and Seahawks and those three teams are a combined 5-22 so that is not exactly the best résumé. How the Bears defeated the Steelers back in Week Two is beyond me. Philadelphia is ninth in total defense and 12th in scoring defense and the Bears have struggled against the upper end of the league hierarchy. Jay Cutler in particular has had a rough time but his offensive line is just as much to blame. Chicago is 30th in the NFL in rushing offense and that comes down to the execution of the offensive line. That line will face a plethora of blitzes from the Eagles who love bringing pressure and that is what gets Cutler in trouble. The Eagles outgained San Diego by 131 yards in that game but their redzone offense was horrific as they had to settle for three field goals in their first three drives inside the San Diego 20-yard line. This has been an issue all season as the Eagles are 11th worst in the league in touchdown percentage in the redzone. The good news is that the Bears have the second worst redzone defense in the NFL as they have allowed touchdowns in 70 percent of the possessions inside the 20-yard line. Philadelphia will be without Brian Westbrook again this week as he got another concussion and was limited against San Diego. That is not ideal but the Bears defense is not playing well against the team that can take advantage and the Eagles can do exactly that. The Eagles fall into a simple yet very effective angle. Play against home underdogs or that are only averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being a potent +9.2 ppg. Both teams are struggling right now but Philadelphia is in a much better position and the struggles are things that can actually be taken care of this week. 4* Philadelphia Eagles

All confirmed.
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[knaw_son]

Teddy Covers
> 11/22/09 NFL Seattle +11 (419)**
> 11/22/09 NFL Washington +11 (421)**
> 11/22/09 NFL Philadelphia -3 (433)

 

[knaw_son]

Sixth Sense


YTD 30-27 +0.90% (Not counting Thursday night loss with Carolina)

3% SAN FRANCISCO +6.5
3% SEATTLE +10.5
3% NY JETS +10.5

 

[knaw_son]

DOCS SPORTS
5 Unit Play. #114 Take San Francisco +7 over Green Bay (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top Play of the Week. Green Bay 20, San Francisco 17.

4 Unit Play. #122 Take Over 46 in Atlanta @ New York (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Totals Play. New York 37, Atlanta 17.

4 Unit Play. #127 Take San Diego -3 over Denver (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) San Diego 24, Denver 14.

4 Unit Play. #135 Take Tennessee +5 over Houston (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) Tennessee 28, Houston 27.

 

[knaw_son]

Strike Point Sports

NFL Plays

7-Unit Play. #431 Take San Diego (-3) over Denver (4:15 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 20)

 

[knaw_son]

Stu Feiner's
1,000,000 dime Private play
Dallas minus the points.

 

[knaw_son]

Ferringo

NFL FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #433 Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)
Note: This is our Gridiron Game of the Week.

3-Unit Play. Take #414 Baltimore (+1) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)


2-Unit Play. Take #409 Buffalo (+9) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)


1-Unit Play. Take #430 Oakland (+9.5) over Cincinnati (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)


This week's totals:
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 45.0 N.Y. Jets at New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 42.5 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Arizona at St. Louis (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 46.0 Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 46.5 Seattle at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 41.5 Washington at Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)


1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #433 Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) AND Take #420 Minnesota (-3.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #411 Pittsburgh (-3) over Kansas City (1 p.m.) AND Take #423 Tampa Bay (+18.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m.)

 

[mp5070]

Diceituponline - Fireman's NFL Plays

Week 11 NFL:
Eagles -2.5 = 15 Dimes
NY Giants -6 = 10 Dimes
Pitt - 10 = 10 Dimes
Dallas - 11 = 10 Dimes

3 Team Teaser = 20 Dimes
Pitt PK (Tease down 10)
Dallas -1 (Tease down 10)
Minn -.5 (Tease down 10)

 

[LAHOTPICKS]

Tim Trushel
Oakland/regular
Under Giants/regular
Under Jacksonville/20*

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Vick


Eagles (-3) over BEARS
National spotlight. Back in his hometown. What more could Donovan McNabb ask for? Maybe another run for him and his mom with a Campbell's Soup commercial? Or, a stinkin' win. At 5-4, the Birds could really use a W. It's not panic time because the NFC East is still kinda bunched up, with Dallas holding only a one-game lead. McNabb's air numbers last week bordered on the ridiculous. He was 35-for-55 for 450 yards and two touchdowns, which was wonderful for all the fantasy players, but 29 net yards rushing ain't gonna make it in this league. Fortunately, this is Chicago and Jay Cutler is at QB, so we don't have to worry all that much. Cutler threw five interceptions last week, and the Bears have covered only six of their last 18. The Eagles have won four of the last five times out in the Windy City, and we're expecting that trend to continue.

Cardinals (-9) over RAMS
Another homecoming of sorts. Kurt Warner spent the majority of his career in St. Louis, leading the Rams to a Super Bowl win over Tennessee, and since he left, has a few sweet wins over his ex-mates. The first time Warner faced the Rams, in St. Louis, was back in 2005, and Arizona posted a 38-28 victory. In 2006, the Cardinals beat the Rams again in St. Louis, even though Matt Leinart was doing the QB chores. In 2007 the Cards put up a 34-31 W in St. Louis, and last season, Arizona belted the Rams in St. Louis, 34-13. So that's a perfect 4-0 as either a starter or backup against his old team. And speaking of perfection, the Cards have rolled out to a 4-0 spread record on the road here in 2009, and have covered 10 of the last 14 away from home. Throw in the Rams ultra-disgusting 1-18 straight up record the last 19 times out, and this selection jumps right into the best-bet category.

COWBOYS (-11) over Redskins
Can't get uglier for Dallas than it did last week in a 17-7 loss at Green Bay. But the Cowboys are back home in their billion-dollar stadium, where, after the opening loss to the Giants, they have mashed the opposition by an average of 17 points per game. The 'Boys beat Carolina, 21-7, whipped Atlanta, 37-21, and rocked Seattle, 38-17. And considering the fact that Washington has covered only three of the last 17 (18 percent), Dallas is the obvious side.

PATRIOTS (-10) over Jets
And we thought there was no crying in football. Apparently, Jets head coach Rex Ryan burst into tears this week while talking to his club, but could really cry a river after this game. New England is gonna be really ticked off after blowing a 31-14 lead against the Colts last week. And the Pats don't like to lose. Coming off a loss, the Patriots are 9-0 since 2006, and have won by an average of 24 points. More than enough to cover this spot.

Titans (+5) over TEXANS
We have been riding Tennessee for the last two and don't plan to get off the money train right now. Coming into the bye week, the Titans were 0-6 and going nowhere. After the bye, Vince Young took over for Kerry Collins, and Tennessee has won three in a row, covered all three, winning by an average of 16 points per game. And not to belabor the homecoming angle, but guess where Mr. Young was born? Yup, Houston.

GIANTS (-6) over Falcons
All the Giants have to do is remember their 5-0 start, remember that they have won nine of the last 13 at home, and that Atlanta has dropped four of the last five on the road.

RAIDERS (+9) over Bengals
Cincy beat Pittsburgh back in September, and failed to cover the following week against Cleveland. The Bengals beat Pitt again last week, and will fail to cover this week against Oakland. Book it.

LIONS (-3) over Browns
This game is blacked out. Too bad it wasn't canceled.

JAGUARS (-9) over Bills
Does it really matter who coaches Buffalo? Short answer is no. Jax by at least two dozen.

Steelers (-10) over CHIEFS
On a 1-16 run at home, there's no way Kaycee comes close to Pittsburgh.

Colts (-1) over RAVENS
Indy might have a little Patriot-lag after that spectacular win, so we'll just keep the play small.

49ers (+6) over PACKERS
The 'Niners know how to stay close, especially on the road, where they have a 3-0-1 spread record.

VIKINGS (-10) over Seahawks
Seattle has only two wins in its last 15 games on the road, so go Purple.

BUCCANEERS (+11) over Saints
Could a 9-0 team be scuffling? New Orleans is on an 0-3 spread run, so maybe it's a miniscuffle.

Chargers (-3) over BRONCOS
Phil Simms? Yes. Chris Simms, No!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Phone Service

4* NY GIANTS

3* PITTS, WASHINGTON, UNDER IN DETR/CLEV GAME

2* OAKLAND, ARIZONA, NEW ORLEANS, HOUSTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Black Cat record is 38-40

Buffalo +8.5
Tampa Bay +11
Cinn -9.5
Rams +9.5
Indy -2
Pitt -10
Atlanta +6.5
New England -10.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Bears
Chiefs
Jets

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE HOCHMAN

423 Saints OV 51
413 Colts -1
436 Texans -5